Ukrainian Wheat: A Study in the Geopolitics of International Trad.

July 26, 2026, 3:21 p.m.

The world is currently witnessing a series of crises; following the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to the loss of millions of lives worldwide and adversely affected many economic sectors, the Russian-Ukrainian war emerged to ignite a new crisis threatening global stability and increasing the likelihood of many individuals falling into the cycle of poverty and hunger. The global economy was significantly impacted by this war across multiple dimensions, including the rise in oil and food prices.
• The Importance of Strategic Crops in State Power: The existence of a political entity is linked to the economic wealth resources of all kinds available within its borders, as the availability of resources influences the future of the state's political power. However, a state's power is not attributed merely to the volume of natural resources it possesses, but rather, actual power is determined by human capability, manifested in the scientific and technical efficiency to exploit these resources. The availability and quality of wealth sources—whether agricultural lands, pastures, forests, minerals, a favorable climate, or water power—all provide potential for the advancement of the political entity.
• Wheat plays a vital role in the political arena, as this crop has transformed into a strategic commodity and even a sharp food weapon in the hands of exporting countries like the United States of America, whether to drain political positions or achieve economic gains, due to the following reasons:
• Wheat forms the foundation of foodstuffs and is considered the core element in food security for a large number of countries, particularly in the Global South.
• Some years suffer from a decline in wheat production due to changing conditions such as floods and droughts, leading to an imbalance between production and the volume of demand.
• The opportunity to expand wheat cultivation in many countries of the world is highly limited, meaning production increases only restrictedly.
• Repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian War on Global Food Security: Due to the war in Ukraine, the number of people suffering from acute food insecurity or at high risk (in millions) has increased by 7.3% in Asia and the Pacific, 6.3% in the Middle East, North Africa, and Eastern Europe, 9.7% in West Africa, 9.6% in Southern Africa, 10.5% in East Africa, and 3.6% in Latin America and the Caribbean. The 2023 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report expects that nearly 600 million people will suffer from chronic malnutrition by the year 2030.
• This comes at a time when 36 out of 55 countries already facing a food crisis rely on imports from Ukraine and Russia. Prior to 2022, the two countries produced about 30% of the world's supply of wheat and barley, one-fifth of the corn, and more than half of the sunflower oil.